The ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is facing its first competitive elections since taking power when democracy was restored in 1999 after a long spell of military rule. Mr Jonathan, who assumed office a year ago following the death of his predecessor, may have to compete in a run-off against his main opponent, Muhammadu Buhari, a former military ruler and ex-PDP member. Even if Mr Jonathan wins in the first round on April 16th (by getting at least 50% of the total vote plus 25% or more in at least two-thirds of the federal states) his party is likely to lose ground. It is expected to do badly in parliamentary polls on April 9th and governors’ contests on April 23rd. That would mark a shift in Nigerian power, away from the PDP.
Many voters are disgusted with the rapaciousness of Africa’s biggest political party. Much of the country’s $400 billion in oil revenues earned during its time in office has ended up in the hands of a small elite. Only a sixth of the population of 150m lives on more than $2 a day. Critics sneeringly call the PDP the “poverty development party” and say it has “more skeletons in its cupboards than rested souls at Lagos’s Atan Cemetery”.
