Author: admin

Britain is on the verge of constitutional upheaval

THIS may seem an odd moment to make the claim, but . The outside world may see an unvarying kingdom of royal weddings, golden carriages and clip-clopping Horse Guards, with a young prime minister drawn from the old Establishment. But strip away the pageantry, and David Cameron’s Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition is proposing radical changes to the constitutional order.

A national referendum Britain is a country in the grip of a modernising frenzy on May 5th and months of parliamentary wrangling lie ahead. But if all the changes being proposed by the coalition come to fruition, British democracy could look and feel very different by the next general election, set by the coalition for May 2015.

Depending on the outcome of the referendum [it failed miserably -DL], that general election may be held using a new voting system: supporters of change call it the biggest shake-up since votes for women in 1928. Voters are to be asked to choose between keeping the winner-takes-all system of first-past-the-post (FPTP) and moving to the alternative-vote (AV) method, in which voters rank candidates in numbered order of preference. Under AV, if no candidate wins more than 50% of voters’ first preferences, the least popular candidate is eliminated and the second preferences of those who voted for him are distributed. The process continues, redistributing third, fourth or lower preferences until someone crosses the 50% line.

Don't worry, be happy: The government introduces the country’s new mantra

THE pursuit of happiness, runs one of the most consequential sentences ever penned, is an unalienable right. That Jeffersonian sentiment seems to have influenced even China’s normally strait-laced, rubber-stamp legislature, the National People’s Congress (NPC), which has just wrapped up its annual session. Increasing happiness, officials now insist, is more important than increasing GDP. A new five-year plan adopted at the meeting has been hailed as a blueprint for a “happy China”.

China’s government is much less impressive than many Westerners believe

IF THERE was one thing that the world’s tycoons agreed on at this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, it was that the Chinese state is a paragon of efficiency—especially compared with the doltish, venal clowns in Washington and Brussels. “Beijing really gets things done,” sighed one American chief executive. “Their government people are so much smarter: it’s terrifying,” enthused one of the world’s richest men. The chalets resounded with stories of contracts rapidly signed, roads speedily built and young engineers designing brilliant cars and software programs.
There is indeed much to admire about parts of the Chinese government. Over the past 30 years the regime has overseen perhaps the biggest increase in economic well-being ever, with several hundred million people moving into the middle class (even if the state had previously been the main thing that held them back). China is led by a group of people who take government enormously seriously there are countless stronger forces pushing in the opposite direction.

For all this, there is something of a Potemkin village about the Chinese state. It is, after all, not terribly hard for a dictatorship to build roads and railways faster than a democracy can. Multinational companies and the educated middle classes are doing well from the state, but the poorer majority in this ever more unequal country get a raw deal. And even if some of its leaders are trying to move closer to Singapore’s model,.

Russia's regional elections: There are few surprises as the Kremlin’s parties mop up the votes

ELECTIONS in Russia have long ceased to be a contest for power or a competition between ideas. Instead they play the role of a plebiscite for the Kremlin and United Russia—a special-purpose vehicle designed by Russia’s rulers to ensure that they stay in power.

With the exception of the toothless Communists, all the parties in the Duma are integral parts of the political system set up by the Kremlin. Elections, like much of politics in Russia, are an imitation of the real thing. But the regional polls on March 13th deserve some attention, not least because they are seen as a dress rehearsal for a parliamentary vote in December and a presidential election the following March.

The general outcome was no surprise. United Russia, which has the entire Russian bureaucracy at its disposal, grabbed 70% of all seats in the 12 legislatures that held elections. Yet in terms of votes, the party did worse than in the previous parliamentary election, in 2007. It won over half the votes in only three regions. In the economically depressed region of Kirov, it received little over one-third.

The fashion to be federal

According to Rupak Chattopadhyay, a Canadian scholar, federations (and the constitutional anomalies that go with them) are desirable in countries that are large or ethnically mixed or both. He thinks that Egypt, despite its history of strong state power, may now need to become decentralised to cope with the needs of around 84m people; even a small country like Libya may need a federal arrangement to accommodate its mixture of tribes and local interests. He is shortly to become president of the Forum of Federations, a body that is based in Canada and backed by nine governments.

Why is the tie between federalism and democracy so awkward? In most federations the units have formally equal status, regardless of population, so voters in small units fare better. Thus the 544,270 residents of Wyoming have two senators—the same as the 37m people of California

Nigeria's elections: They may even be democratic

The ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is facing its first competitive elections since taking power when democracy was restored in 1999 after a long spell of military rule. Mr Jonathan, who assumed office a year ago following the death of his predecessor, may have to compete in a run-off against his main opponent, Muhammadu Buhari, a former military ruler and ex-PDP member. Even if Mr Jonathan wins in the first round on April 16th (by getting at least 50% of the total vote plus 25% or more in at least two-thirds of the federal states) his party is likely to lose ground. It is expected to do badly in parliamentary polls on April 9th and governors’ contests on April 23rd. That would mark a shift in Nigerian power, away from the PDP.

Many voters are disgusted with the rapaciousness of Africa’s biggest political party. Much of the country’s $400 billion in oil revenues earned during its time in office has ended up in the hands of a small elite. Only a sixth of the population of 150m lives on more than $2 a day. Critics sneeringly call the PDP the “poverty development party” and say it has “more skeletons in its cupboards than rested souls at Lagos’s Atan Cemetery”.

The Caucuses: As this part of Russia’s empire frays, fundamentalist Islam takes a stronger hold

Russian rule has always been tenuous there. The territory, which stretches from the Black Sea to the Caspian, was colonised late and was never fully integrated into Russia’s empire. Its Muslim peoples enjoyed considerable autonomy, both religious and cultural, until the Bolsheviks took over—whereupon the Caucasus was so modernised and Sovietised that when the Soviet Union fell only Chechnya declared its independence.

Two wars later Chechnya is relatively stable under President Ramzan Kadyrov, a former rebel whose patron is Vladimir Putin, Russia’s prime minister. Grozny, Chechnya’s once-ruined capital, is now a surreal place boasting several skyscrapers, the largest mosque in Europe, chandelier-lit streets and a Putin Prospect. The president enjoys something of a personality cult: official licence-plates carry his initials, and banners outside schools thank him for “taking care of our future”. Yet Chechnya is virtually a separate state, where women must wear headscarves in public and the sale of alcohol is restricted.

Violence has spread from Chechnya to other north Caucasus republics and beyond…

New signs of tension at the top as Russia’s 2012 presidential election looms

IT ALL seemed so clear a year ago. Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s president, tweeted and blogged about modernisation, while Vladimir Putin, Russia’s prime minister and the other half of the tandem, pulled the strings, drove anything that moved and posed for cameras as he prepared to stroll back into the Kremlin in 2012, this time for two six-year terms.

But in recent weeks the picture has become hazier. Mr Putin’s return to the Kremlin is looking less certain, and Russia’s political system seems even less stable. The differences between the two men are mainly stylistic, but the signs of a political struggle are real.

Are countries poor because they are violent or violent because they are poor?

Violence, it seems, is always with us, like poverty. And that might seem all there is to be said: violence is bad, it is worse in poor countries and it makes them poorer.

But this year’s World Development Report, the flagship publication of the World Bank, suggests there is a lot more to say. Violence, the authors argue, is not just one cause of poverty among many: it is becoming the primary cause. Countries that are prey to violence are often trapped in it. Those that are not are escaping poverty. This has profound implications both for poor countries trying to pull themselves together and for rich ones trying to help.

Dirk Vandewalle on Gadhafi's World

Dirk Vandewalle, an associate professor of government at Dartmouth College, gives an inside look at Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi and his 42-year rule. Vandewalle has studied and written about Libya since the 1980s. In 1986 he lived in Libya for 14 months, the only Western scholar there at the time.

Note: sorry about the 10 minute discussion of Gadaffi’s wardrobe. But it is kind of interesting insofar as his attire is symbolic of his self perception and eccentricity.

Guided questions are here.

Third of Russians think sun spins round Earth?

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Does the sun revolve around the Earth? One in every three Russians thinks so, a spokeswoman for state pollster VsTIOM said on Friday.

In a survey released this week, 32 percent of Russians believed the Earth was the center of the Solar system; 55 percent that all radioactivity is man-made; and 29 percent that the first humans lived when dinosaurs still roamed the Earth.

“It’s really quite amazing,” spokeswoman Olga Kamenchuk said of the survey that polled 1,600 people across Russia’s regions in January, with a 3.4-percent margin of error.

However, people tend to forget what they have been taught at school if it is not part of daily use, she added: “I wonder whether our colleagues in other countries would find any different.”

Now do you believe in the “transition to democracy”?

BBC & CNN on Iran

 
A note on checks and balances in Iran (Aug 2009)

Zakaria & Guests discuss how Iran will weather the Arab Uprisings of 2011

Zakaria & Soros discuss Iran 2011

Vicente Fox: More a Caricature of an Effective Presidency than the Real Thing

Methinks COHA underplays Mexican history when they conclude that, “Fox will go down in Mexican history as little more than a “lame duck” throughout his entire presidency, who failed to accomplish anything approaching a string of concrete improvements for his country, even though he held on as the symbol of Mexico’s turn to democracy.” But you should really explore the COHA argument and judge for yourself.

Rafsanjani loses post as chair of Experts

Mr Rafsanjani had chaired the Assembly of Experts, which selects the supreme leader and supervises his activities, for the past four years. But he was criticised by hardliners for being close to the opposition.

Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi Kani was selected to replace him, the semi-official Mehr news agency reported.
Mr Rafsanjani said that for the sake of keeping the country united, he would not stand against Mr Kani.

“If he was ready and accepted responsibility, I would certainly not nominate myself, so that we could eliminate the differences and this sacred institution would not be damaged by my side,” he said.
He warned that divisiveness was becoming “very serious” and said the country should be “vigilant to keep people united”.
Mr Rafsanjani had chaired the Assembly – an elected body of clerics which has the theoretical power to dismiss the supreme leader – since 2007.

But he was stripped of his role as a leader of Friday prayers after criticising a crackdown on opposition protests after President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s disputed 2009 re-election.

Mr Rafsanjani remains the chairman of the Expediency Council, a committee which arbitrates disputes over legislation among state bodies.